mamoie ReportSAMPLE
A disaster profile for this home — six hazards, from official Japanese government data
Issued: 2026-07-04
Data retrieved: 2026-07-04
Data retrieved: 2026-07-04
Subject location
Around Oshiage 1-1-2, Sumida, Tokyo (foot of Tokyo Skytree)
35.71008, 139.80861 · Address shown in Japanese as registered
Overall assessment
High cautionApplies: Flood-designated area · High earthquake probability · Storm-surge inundation assumed · High liquefaction potential (4 items)
The translation — what this actually means
The headline risks for this location are water and shaking. Cliff collapse and tsunami, by contrast, are not a concern here. In practical terms, heavy rain and typhoons are assumed to bring water here, and earthquake risk — both probability and ground response — deserves attention. Put another way, this is a location where the right preparations are clear — the following chapters walk through them in order.
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Flooding — depth, time to recede, house-collapse risk
Map: GSI base tiles with the official flood-inundation layer (maximum-scale assumption). ● marks the subject location. On screen you can zoom and pan; in print/PDF the subject location is centered.
Assumed flood depth0.5–3.0mMaximum-scale rainfall (roughly a 1-in-1000-year event)
Time for water to recede1–3 daysFlood duration (same assumption)
House-collapse hazard zoneOutsideNeither overflow current nor bank erosion applies — the building itself is not in a wash-away zone
The translation — what this actually means
A depth of 0.5–3.0m means water reaching from an adult's waist up to near the first-floor ceiling in deeper spots. The scenario to avoid most is being asleep on the first floor as water rises. On the other hand, this location is not in a house-collapse hazard zone, so in a sturdy building, moving to the second floor or higher ("vertical evacuation") is a realistic option. The key question then becomes whether you can hold out for 1–3 days until the water recedes — that duration of water, food, a portable toilet and power is the preparation benchmark for this home.
Storm surge — seawater during typhoons
Storm-surge assumption0.5–3.0mInside the maximum-scale typhoon storm-surge assumption
The translation — what this actually means
Beyond river flooding from heavy rain, storm surge — the sea rising under a typhoon's low pressure and wind — is also assumed to inundate this location to 0.5–3.0m. In other words, water can arrive here in two ways: heavy rain and typhoons. When a typhoon approaches, watch not only river levels but also tide levels and high-tide times. The saving grace: storm surge can be anticipated days in advance from the forecast track, so moving early prevents most of the harm.
Earthquake — probability of shaking, and ground amplification
30-yr: shindo 5-upper+99.7%Assume you will experience this at least once while living here
30-yr: shindo 6-lower+83.2%High even by national standards
30-yr: shindo 6-upper+31.5%Shaking at which building collapses can become widespread
Ground amplification×2.28AVS30 = 152 m/s. Soft ground that amplifies shaking more than firm ground
The translation — what this actually means
Shindo 6-lower (on Japan's JMA intensity scale) is shaking strong enough that you cannot stay standing, and buildings with poor earthquake resistance can collapse. The probability of that within 30 years here is 83.2% — realistically, plan on it happening at least once while you live here. Moreover, the ground here is soft: the same earthquake will shake this spot more than nearby firm ground. The building's earthquake resistance (post-1981 "new seismic standard", ideally a seismic grade) and securing furniture are, quite directly, life-saving preparations.
Tokyo Metropolitan hazard survey (押上1丁目 — town-block level)
Building collapseRank 3 / 5How prone the area is to building damage from shaking
FireRank 2 / 5Risk of post-earthquake fire outbreak and spread
OverallRank 2 / 5Ranked 2072 of 5,192 town blocks in Tokyo
Source: 東京都都市整備局「地震に関する地域危険度測定調査（第9回）」（令和4年9月公表） (CC BY 4.0). Tokyo's own survey, one level finer than the national 250m mesh; ranks are relative within Tokyo.
The translation — what this actually means
In Tokyo's town-block survey, 押上1丁目 rates rank 2 overall (2072 of 5,192) — comparatively low within Tokyo. Note this is a relative comparison inside Tokyo; it does not mean the shaking probability itself (above) is low. The basic preparations remain just as worthwhile.
Liquefaction — is the ground itself vulnerable to shaking?
Liquefaction potentialHighEstimated from the landform class "Drained land (polder)". Guideline by the Wakamatsu–Matsuoka method
The translation — what this actually means
Liquefaction is when loose, sandy ground behaves like a liquid during earthquake shaking — buildings tilt, water and gas lines break, roads buckle. Its impact lasts long after the shaking stops. This land is classified as Drained land (polder), with potential rated High. If you are considering a detached house here, always check the geotechnical survey report and whether liquefaction countermeasures (piles, ground improvement) are in place. Note that liquefaction damage is not covered by fire insurance — only earthquake insurance covers it.
Landslide & tsunami
Landslide hazard areaOutsideChecked all three types — steep-slope failure, debris flow, landslide — none apply
Tsunami assumptionOutsideNot within any tsunami inundation assumption
The translation — what this actually means
"Not applicable" is itself valuable information — because we checked. For this location you can set cliff collapse and tsunami aside, and concentrate your preparation elsewhere.
The land's origins and elevation — the root of the risks
Landform classDrained land (polder)Land classification from the national surface-ground dataset
Elevation0.8mMeasured by 1m（レーザ）
The translation — what this actually means
This chapter answers the "why" behind the whole report. This was originally waterside lowland (Drained land (polder), elevation 0.8m) — which is why water reaches it easily (flood, storm surge), and why the ground is soft (amplified shaking, liquefaction). The warnings that looked scattered all trace back to one fact: the land's origin as Drained land (polder). Once you know the land's character, the order of preparations follows naturally.
Evacuation — nearby designated sites, and an important caveat
Flood-capable designated emergency evacuation sites (GSI national dataset). Covered hazards: flood, storm surge, inland flooding. Distances are straight-line; walking times assume 80m/min.
※ Because this is national data, shelters designated independently by the municipality may be missing. Always confirm with 墨田区's official shelter list.
The translation — what this actually means
The list above shows the nearest flood-capable sites in the national GSI "designated emergency evacuation site" dataset. However, these are facilities in neighboring municipalities — 墨田区's own designated shelters may be missing from the national dataset. Closer shelters inside 墨田区 may in fact open, so always confirm with 墨田区's official shelter list and hazard map. Note: these shelters carry the operating condition "will not open if river flooding is imminent". In a major flood of a large river, this is an area where the municipality calls for wide-area evacuation — leaving early for relatives, hotels or other areas. "Just go to the nearby shelter" may not apply here; the basic move is to act early, as soon as the typhoon or rain outlook firms up.
If you live here — preparation priorities
1Make sure your fire insurance includes flood coverageTop priority where 0.5m+ inundation is assumed. For this location, flood coverage is not optional.› How flood coverage works (Japanese)
2Add earthquake insuranceThe only financial protection that covers both shaking and liquefaction — liquefaction damage is covered by earthquake insurance alone.› Insurance review guide (Japanese)
3Stock for sheltering in place (several days)Water, food and a portable toilet for the days until floodwater recedes, stored upstairs. Vertical evacuation then becomes sheltering at home.› Choosing an emergency kit (Japanese)
4Prepare for power outageBoth floods and earthquakes tend to cut power. Keeping your phone, lights and information running is a lifeline.› Choosing portable power (Japanese)
5Agree on a family evacuation ruleAgree to move early — at the forecast stage — and share it as a family.› Running a family meeting (Japanese)
Before you buy or sign — what to ask and check
- At the legally required property disclosure (jūyō jikō setsumei), receive the flood hazard map explanation (mandatory since 2020) and check that it matches this report
- Check for a raised foundation or ground elevation work (where flooding is assumed, floor height directly becomes the difference in damage)
- Check where electrical equipment, the water heater and AC outdoor units are mounted (ground level, or raised?)
- Ask the municipal office (墨田区) for past flooding and disaster records at this location
- Request the geotechnical survey report (essential for detached and custom-built houses)
- Confirm liquefaction countermeasures (pile foundations, ground improvement) and their details
- Confirm the building meets the post-1981 "new seismic standard" — ideally ask for its seismic grade
- Get a fire (with flood coverage) and earthquake insurance quote before you commit to the purchase
- For condominiums: check where the electrical room and water tanks sit (basements mean long outages if flooded) and the building's disaster plan
- Walk the evacuation route yourself — imagining night, and rain
Sources, and how to read this report
- Flood depth / duration / house-collapse zones / landslide / tsunami / storm surge: "Overlay Hazard Map" portal (MLIT & Geospatial Information Authority of Japan)
- Earthquake probabilities / landform class / ground amplification: J-SHIS, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps, 2024 edition)
- Elevation and geocoding: GSI (Geospatial Information Authority of Japan) APIs
- Designated emergency evacuation sites: GSI dataset (based on municipal designations)
- Liquefaction potential: estimated from landform classification (Wakamatsu–Matsuoka method; guideline only)
- Tokyo town-block hazard survey: 東京都都市整備局「地震に関する地域危険度測定調査（第9回）」（令和4年9月公表） (CC BY 4.0)
› Full list of referenced datasets (sources, publication years, resolution — Japanese)
This report is reference information based on public open data. It is not a guarantee of safety, nor investment, purchase or insurance advice. Judgments are made at map-pixel or ~250m-mesh resolution, so values near a boundary may reflect the adjacent zone. For final confirmation, consult the municipality's latest hazard maps and offices. Shelter designations and their operating rules can change. Japanese terms (shindo, place names) are kept where translation could lose precision.
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